Sea Level Rise and Its Projection in the Galveston Bay of Mexico Gulf
The local relative sea level rise in Galveston Bay consists of global and local mean sea level rise due to global warming, local bedrock subsidence primarily due to tectonic plate motion, primary consolidation subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal from uncemented or semi-cemented aquifer systems, and secondary consolidation subsidence due to geo-historical overburden pressure of the aquifer systems. The global and local mean sea level rises are 1.70 and -0.27 mm/yr., respectively. The bedrock subsidence was estimated to be 2.41 mm/yr. based on GPS measurements. The primary consolidation subsidence at Galveston Pier 21 was considered to zero because groundwater level has been managed to be stable in trend since 2000. The local secondary consolidation subsidence was estimated to be 2.67 mm/yr. with time. The annual mean relative sea level in Galveston Bay was projected to rise to 0.66, 0.97, 1.67, and 2.48 m in 2100 for the lowest, intermediate low, intermediate high, and highest scenarios, respectively. Compared to the annual mean sea level of -0.04 m in 2000, the relative sea level was projected to rise 0.70, 1.01, 1.71, and 2.52 m in the 21st century for the lowest, intermediate low, intermediate high, and highest scenarios, respectively. In the projected relative sea level rise values in the 21st century, LS accounts for 72%, 50%, 30%, and 20% for the lowest, intermediate low, intermediate high, and highest scenarios, respectively.
Liu, Yi; Li, Jiang; and Fang, Zheng N., "Sea Level Rise and Its Projection in the Galveston Bay of Mexico Gulf" (2019). Clarence M. Mitchell School of Engineering. 18.
American Society of Civil Engineers Reston, VA